NFL betting and NFL parlays go hand in hand, and aside from straight wagering, NFL parlay bets are the most popular type of wager placed on the NFL An NFL parlay is a bet where you combine multiple selections into a single wager, with all of the selections needing to win for your bet to win.
- How To Bet Parlay
- 2 Team Parlay Bet
- Parlay Meaning
- Betting Parlay Payout
- What's A Parlay Bet
- How Are Parlay Bets Calculated
Before we go any further, we need to explain what a parlay is fully.
How To Bet Parlay
In order to win the entire bet, you have to win each of the individual bets on your parlay. If you lose one individual bet, then you lose the entire parlay bet.
The reason is that the sportsbook will pay you out much more money for correctly picking multiple individual bets together.There is more risk in this type of bet so it should be expected that we are offered a higher reward for making this wager.
- A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers for a high payout. A 2 team parlay might pay 13/5, a three team parlay might pay 6/1, a four team parlay might pay 10/1, and so forth with the payouts getting higher with more teams or totals selected.
- For example, if you have a three-team parlay and you win two bets and the third pushes, you would be paid out as if you won a two team parlay. Forcing True Odds There’s a fancy little trick floating around that can be used when a sportsbook is not paying out true odds (meaning they have manipulated them slightly in their favor which most of.
Let’s compare betting three games individually versus betting them as a parlay.
Let’s assume that each game is -110 moneyline odds.
Let’s also assume that our bankroll for these three games is $300. We’re going to look at the scenarios if we picked all three games correctly and if we only picked two of the games correctly.
If we bet the games individually, we would bet $100 per game.
2 Team Parlay Bet
| Game | Bet Amount | Odds | Outcome | Profit/Loss |
| Game 1 | $100 | -110 | Win | $90.91 |
| Game 2 | $100 | -110 | Win | $90.91 |
| Game 3 | $100 | -110 | Win | $90.91 |
Now, what would happen if we picked all three games as a parlay bet? This time, we would place a single bet of $300. We will go over how to calculate parlay payouts in the section below here, but for now, we have done the calculations for you.
The profit on this bet as a parlay would be $1787.40! Even if we only bet $100 total, we would see a profit of $595.80. As you can see, you can bet 1/3 of the amount you bet total in the individual games and still make more than double what you would betting the games individually.
At this point, a lot of people are wondering why you would ever bet anything but parlays. You can bet less and make so much more! Well, as you are probably guessing, there is more to the story.
Let’s look at what happens in our same example, except this time we only pick two out of the three games correctly. We bet the same games again for $100 each individually, and we are correct on two out of the three games.
| Game | Bet Amount | Odds | Outcome | Profit/Loss |
| Game 1 | $100 | -110 | Win | $90.91 |
| Game 2 | $100 | -110 | Win | $90.91 |
| Game 3 | $100 | -110 | Loss | ($100.00) |
If we bet all three of the games as a parlay for $300 (or $100), our profit is negative $300 or negative $100. If you get even one game wrong in a parlay, you lose the entire bet. You’ve now seen the downside to parlays.
Even if you only get one game correct betting them individually, you’re only going to lose $109. If you bet the same $300 on a parlay, though, you lose the entire $300. The risk is higher for parlays, but the associated reward is also higher.
A parlay, accumulator (or acca), combo bet or multi is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the parlay is that there are much higher payoffs than placing each individual bet separately, since the difficulty of hitting all of them is much higher. If any of the bets in the parlay lose, the entire parlay loses. If any of the plays in the parlay ties, or 'pushes', the parlay reverts to a lower number of teams with the odds reducing accordingly.
Parlay Meaning
Odds and payout[edit]
Parlay bets are paid out at odds higher than the typical single game bet, but still below the 'true' odds. For instance, a common 2-team NFL parlay based entirely on the spread generally has a payout of 2.6:1.[citation needed] In reality however, if one assumes that each single game bet is 50/50, the true payout should instead be 3:1 (10% expected value for the house). A house may average 20-30% profit on spread parlays compared to perhaps 4.5% profit on individual sports mix parlay bets.
Aside from 'spread' parlays, another way to parlay is to bet on two or more teams simply winning straight up. In order to calculate the payout of this parlay, one must multiply out the payout for all games. For example, if 3 teams are -385 favorites, a successful parlay on all 3 teams winning would pay out at a ratio of approximately 1/1. This is because (385/485)^3 is approximately 50%.
Examples[edit]
Typical payouts for up to 10 team parlay bet[edit]
The following is an example of a traditional Las Vegas Parlay Card at William Hill Sports Book, which shows the typical payouts for an up to 10 team parlay bet based on -1.10 prices (amount won is assuming $100 is bet)[citation needed]:
| Number | Odds | Amount won | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Team Parlay | 2.6 to 1 | $260 | $360 |
| 3 Team Parlay | 6 to 1 | $600 | $700 |
| 4 Team Parlay | 11 to 1 | $1,100 | $1,200 |
| 5 Team Parlay | 22 to 1 | $2,200 | $2,300 |
| 6 Team Parlay | 45 to 1 | $4,500 | $4,600 |
| 7 Team Parlay | 90 to 1 | $9,000 | $9,100 |
| 8 Team Parlay | 180 to 1 | $18,000 | $18,100 |
| 9 Team Parlay | 360 to 1 | $36,000 | $36,100 |
| 10 Team Parlay | 720 to 1 | $72,000 | $72,100 |
Profitability of parlays in sports betting[edit]
Many gamblers have mixed feelings as to whether or not parlays are a wise play. The best way to analyze if they are profitable in the long term is by calculating the expected value. The formula for expected value is: E[X] = x1p1 + x2p2 + x3p3…xkpk . Since the probability of all possible events will add up to 1 this can also be looked at as the weighted average of the event. The table below represents odds.[citation needed]
Column 1 = number of individual bets in the parlay
Column 2 = correct odds of winning with 50% chance of winning each individual bet
Column 3 = odds payout of parlay at the sportsbook
Column 4 = correct odds of winning parlay with 55% chance of winning each individual bet
| Number of individual bets | Correct odds at 50% | Odds payout at sportsbook | Correct odds of winning parlay at 55% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 to 1 | 2.6 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| 3 | 7 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 5.0 to 1 |
| 4 | 15 to 1 | 12 to 1 | 9.9 to 1 |
| 5 | 31 to 1 | 24 to 1 | 18.9 to 1 |
| 6 | 63 to 1 | 48 to 1 | 35.1 to 1 |
| 7 | 127 to 1 | 92 to 1 | 64.7 to 1 |
| 8 | 255 to 1 | 176 to 1 | 118.4 to 1 |
| 9 | 511 to 1 | 337 to 1 | 216.1 to 1 |
| 10 | 1,023 to 1 | 645 to 1 | 393.8 to 1 |
| 11 | 2,047 to 1 | 1,233 to 1 | 716.8 to 1 |
Betting Parlay Payout
The table illustrates that if a 55% chance of winning each individual bet were achievable, parlays would be profitable in the long term. Compare the expected value you receive on an individual bet at a typical price of -110 with a 55% chance of winning: ((100/110+1)*.55)-1 = .05 (exactly 5 cents won for every dollar bet on average), multiplied by 11 = .55, to the expected return on the 11 game parlay ((1234/717.8)-1) = .719 (72 cents won for every dollar bet on average). In this case a parlay has a much higher expected value than individual bets with greatly increased variance in outcomes.