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Aug 22, 2014
Card counting is the gold standard when we’re talking about winning at blackjack. But some blackjack experts claim you can win without counting.
Blackjack is a casino game. That means that the house has an inherent mathematical advantage over the player. Theoretically the more the player plays, the more the casino drains from their pockets. But blackjack stands out from other games like slots, baccarat and roulette because the player can use advantage play techniques to turn the tide in their favor.
One can never make a living from roulette, but one can from playing blackjack. The most obvious way to do this is by using a card counting system. There are numerous systems out there but all of them are designed to make the player aware of when the odds are in their favor so they can place a very large wager.
That being said, some prominent voices doubt the necessity of counting cards to win consistently.
Leon Dubey and the no-counting situational approach
In 1980 blackjack expert Leon Dubey published a book called No Need to Count in which he promotes a strategy for winning at blackjack which is much different from most blackjack books, which are almost exclusively about basic strategy or card counting. His approach is the most commonly-cited non-counting system in use.
Essentially he argues that you can end up with the same result as you would by counting without actually counting. Whereas counting takes a mathematical approach, Dubey’s no-counting system takes a holistic approach to making yourself aware of when the odds are in your favor.
This is also referred to as a “situational system” as the player considers the current situation to decide how to play the upcoming hand. It is quantitatively, not qualitatively different for a standard counting system.
Dubey’s approach relies on three “situational” indicators that the next hand will be (or will not be) in the player’s favor
• If the player has won the previous hand it is an indicator that advantageous cards (face cards) were dealt, so the chances of good cards being dealt again are lessened
• If the player lost the previous hand the vice-versa occurs, as being dealt poor-quality cards means it’s more likely one will be dealt high-quality ones upcoming
• If the last hand was a push the chances of a player loss on the upcoming hand are magnified even more, as the previous hand most likely resulted in both the dealer and player being dealt face cards
These rules are extremely simple but Dubey testified that they had been mathematically tested and approved, a claim which was accepted by blackjack legend Arnold Snyder.
Dubey was not the first to show that the outcome of the next hand can be predicted in part by considering the outcome of the previous hand. There are other positive and negative indicators as well. For example, following a non-ace pair split the player’s expectation should rise; following an ace split it should drop. And expectations should rise after any hand – player or dealer – which involves someone taking four or more cards.
The critique of this system
Dubey and followers are 100 percent correct in asserting that analysis of the previous hand can be useful in predicting the outcome of the upcoming hand, and they have the mathematical studies to prove it.
The question is: so what? The correlation between the last hand and the previous hand is quite small. So small that some analysis has found that correctly betting in accordance with these simple indicators lessens the house edge rather than tips the edge into the advantage of the player.
Another thing: non-counting systems are not pit boss-proof. Some believe that situational techniques are not detectable by casino staff. It’s true that one is less likely to be sniffed out using this system than when counting cards directly, but some blackjack players have been given the back-off for situational playing.
In the words of Snyder, “situational play is valid, but not a very good moneymaking system.” If done properly you’ll win more than you would using basic strategy alone, but not enough to significantly increase the size of bankroll.
A situational system is essentially a watered-down counting system. It’s easier to use but much less lucrative. At the end of the day it isn’t worth the trouble.
Why card counting is the best way to win
Non-counting advantage play strategies like Dubey’s can give the player a higher chance of winning but they are simply not as precise as using a card counting system. They amount to a sort of advantage play “cheating,” the desire to tip the house edge in one’s favor without putting the time in to learn a proper counting system.
Then there are cases where a player like the now-famous Don Johnson had a few big nights in Atlantic City casinos and won $15 million using only basic strategy. He’s an excellent blackjack player, but that style of play isn’t sustainable. There’s a reason he isn’t a professional blackjack player.
The truth is in blackjack there are no shortcuts to prolonged success. Advanced blackjack smart strategies require countless hours of hard work to learn. That’s exactly why aspiring players are looking for non-counting strategies, but there are simply no alternatives to counting.
To answer the question in the title to this article, yes, it is possible to win at blackjack without using a card counting system. But that doesn’t mean that one should attempt to do it.
Tags: Arnold Snyder, card counting system, Don Johnson, Leon Dubey, No Need to Count, non-counting advantage play blackjack systems, Situational Blackjack, smart strategies, winning at blackjack
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Blackjack is one of those games at the casino that would really require a bit of strategy for you to win, and some might even say that blackjack is much harder to play than poker since the former requires more critical thinking than the latter, which relies more on luck and reading opponents’ emotions. However, knowing some basic strategies on blackjack will help you win more matches, and these strategies are quite easy to understand and learn. To get you started in winning at blackjack, here are some simple tips and strategies that you can apply to your gameplay.
Don’t Bet Too High at the Beginning
How To Play Blackjack At A Casino
If you have a set budget for playing blackjack, the number one strategy that you should learn is about learning how to start small bets. By having only small bets during the first games or matches, you will be able to get used to the gameplay of blackjack and also the “feel” of the table without gambling too much with betting high.
There are certain days where luck might not be on your side, which would often be the cause of losing streaks, so if you start betting high during those particular days, then you will start losing money quickly. The key to one of these blackjack simple strategies is to learn how to gauge your winning and losing streaks so that you will slowly understand when you would want to bet higher or lower.
Sit at the Middle or Last Seats
It is a general blackjack rule that the one that sits on the first table, usually found in the right of the dealer, will be the first one that will receive his or her first set of cards. Sitting at the first base seat is often advantageous for veterans that already wanted to know what their cards are going to be so that they will know when to stand or to hit. In addition, sitting at the first seat also prevents his or her cards from being influenced by other players, who may have higher or lower cards than the first seat player.
However, if you are a beginner in the game, sitting on the first base seat may actually be a disadvantage for you, as you will have a shorter time to decide what to do with your cards and think about your dealer’s up card. For veterans, thinking of a strategy with their cards wouldn’t be a problem since they have already memorized each move they will use for every possible card combination. So, if you are just a newbie at blackjack, don’t sit at the first base seat and just sit instead to the middle or last seats so that you will have more time to strategize with your cards.
Mind the Dealer’s Up Card
The way to win in blackjack is for you to beat the dealer’s cards without going over the value of 21 with your cards. So, it is important that you should always think about your dealer’s cards when making your moves. Unfortunately, there is only one dealer card that is face-up on the table, and that is called the up card. Because the dealer’s second card is face-down, it would be much harder for you to strategize your cards since you would have to guess the value of the unknown card.
However, the value of the dealer’s entire card can already be strategized by only thinking about the up card since the said card can usually affect the value of the dealer’s hand more than the face-down card. If the dealer’s up card has a value of 2 to 6, there is a chance that you might win if you have cards with a higher value. But if the dealer has an up card with a value of 7 or higher, then you may want to surrender or fold since it would be difficult to beat the dealer’s cards that already have a high value even without you knowing the value of the face-down card.
Know the Basic Strategy
There is a pattern that you can follow depending on the cards that you and the dealer have on the table. Here are some of the patterns that coincide with the basic blackjack rules:
- Stand (keep your cards) if you have cards that create a value of 12 to 16 and the dealer has an up card that shows 2 to 6.
- Hit (take another card) if you have a hand that has a value of 12 to 16 and the dealer has an up card with 7 or higher (Ace being the highest) as its value.
- Split (separate two cards with the same value into two hands) if you have Aces or 8s on your hand.
Can You Win At Blackjack In A Casino Game
Memorizing these basic patterns can be quite difficult for beginners, but there are blackjack rule books and strategy cards that you can purchase online that can be quite handy to bring with you whenever you are playing blackjack in a live casino.
Can You Win At Blackjack In A Casino
So, those are just some simple strategies that you can follow if you want to win more rounds or matches at blackjack. Most of the strategies stated above don’t actually involve the actual gameplay aspect of the game, as they are more about planning where you would want to be at the table and what to do before the game starts. Memorize the pattern for each card combination and learn how to deal with the dealer’s up card to have an advantage over most players.